Craig's Economic Outlook

China's Dollar Dilemma

2009-02-23T12:20:00.001-08:00

Just ran across this article, China's dollar dilemma. Articles like this always make me nervous.

China's near $2,000bn (£1,380bn, €1,560bn) in reserves, the world's largest, are often viewed outside the country as a great strength – an insurance policy against economic turbulence. But within China, they are increasingly seen by the public and even some policymakers as something of an albatross – a huge pool of resources not being used at home that will plunge in value if the US dollar collapses. Why, people ask, should such a relatively poor country bankroll such a rich one?

An excellent question. The answer is they shouldn't. Nobody should, unless that money is going towards investment in businesses that will use the money to buy capital and create goods (some services can be included in this). But the majority of the debt we've been accumulating for the last 30 years has been going toward consumption. If you refinance your house and use that money to go on vacation or remodel your kitchen, that money is simply gone. It's not going to make more money for the investor. The only hope is to get some interest off the debt, which right now isn't looking very profitable.

If China would ever decide to start spending their reserve of US dollars, or undergoes a major diversification into other currencies, we will be in for some serious inflation as that $2 trillion starts to come home.

Evidence of Deflation

2009-02-17T11:18:00.000-08:00

Here is an article about companies cutting pay checks instead of jobs - More companies, such as Acco Brands, turning to pay cuts to avoid more layoffs. It has to be extremely painful for the employees, and a 47% pay cut for six weeks seems really bad, but it is allowing these companies to keep people employed. Again, anyone with debt will be hurt the worst. It is keeping people employed though, and hopefully allowing these companies to be prepared when the recession ends. And it will end eventually.

Here is the reason why - Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items. A lot of overcapacity and inventory. We've been on a lending and buying spree for so long, everything is out of wack. Now that people are trying to pay off their debt, they are spending far less. Spending probably won't pick up until people feel comfortable with their financed, which means paying off their debt and increasing their savings. It's going to take a while.

I've been reading a book by Murray N. Rothbard called America's Great Depression. I'm just getting into the details about what caused the depression, but the main premise seems to be rapid monetary expansion and inflation in the form of banks loaning too much money to too many people. Back then though, it was the stock market everyone thought would go up forever, not housing. The result was pretty much what we're seeing now. I have yet to get into why the Depression lasted so long, but I have a feeling the main focus will be government intervention. Sounds familiar. It's all making me a little depressed actually.

China Monthly Auto Sales Overtake US

2009-02-10T06:42:00.000-08:00

Wealth and money are two different things. We have had a lot of money over the last 30 years because we have been borrowing it from foreign countries. We have been giving away our wealth by sending our capital (manufacturing equipment, factories, etc) overseas and by spending our savings and going into debt.

After WWII, the reason why the United States became so affluent in the world was because we had a massive reserve of manufacturing capacity. Americans sacrificed their standard of living during the war to build factories that could produce the necessary goods to win the war. There were shortages of metal, rubber, nylon, food, you name it. People planted victory gardens for the war effort and women painted lines on the back of their legs so it looked like they had nylons on. After the war we had an amazing capacity for manufacturing. But instead of building tanks and planes, the factories switched to building cars and appliances. We became a net exporter of the goods we produced and became wealthy because of it.

For the last 30 years, we have been shipping that manufacturing capacity overseas, mostly to China. We have become a "service" economy which essentially means we consume more then we produce. Seventy percent of our economy is based on services. Meanwhile, China has been sacrificing their standard of living in order to lend us money and make us goods. There has been a massive transfer of wealth. Some believe that China is now poised to take over as the manufacturer of the world and will become wealthy because of it. Their standard of living will rise while ours falls. You can read more about all this in Peter Schiff's book, "Crash Proof".

Today, the following article caught my attention. China monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time. It says, "China's vehicle market has grown dramatically in recent years, overtaking Japan in 2006 to become the world's second-largest by annual sales. With 1.3 billion people, China will inevitably leapfrog the U.S., with a population of 300 million, into the No. 1 spot, industry experts say." I think this is evidence that this theory of wealth transfer is correct.

China is also suffering from the world recession, but they are in a far greater position to weather the storm then we are. Their savings rates are near 50% for individuals, and there government has very little debt. Once they realize that they can stop lending us money and start using that money to increase their own standard of living, look out. They'll move into the No. 1 spot for pretty much everything.

Spending Down, Savings Up

2009-02-02T06:16:00.000-08:00

More "bad" economic news.

"U.S. consumers cut spending for a sixth straight month in December and their incomes shrank, according to a government report on Monday that underscored the rapid deterioration in the economy."

- Consumer spending falls, savings jump

I think they should have said a "rapid correction" instead of a "rapid deterioration." Also, notice how it talks about incomes shrinking? That goes hand in hand with my previous post. Still, spending only decreased by 1 percent. When you think about it, people are still spending money. There will always be consumption, just a little less of it.

My favorite part of that article, "Personal savings surged in December to 3.6 percent of disposable income from 2.8 percent in November, the largest rate since May 2008." Sounds like we've learned something. Only a few years ago, personal savings was less then 0%.

Why Debt Will Cause Lasting Unemployment

2009-01-28T05:31:00.001-08:00

You may not have heard yet, but the United States is in a recession. All recessions are caused by the same thing – artificial growth of the economy followed by a natural contraction. The current recession we are in was caused by government spending, artificially low interest rates, speculation in real estate causing artificially high valuations, debt based on those valuations, and cheap and easy credit. For thirty years, we have spent well beyond our means. Because of this, car companies built too many factories and home improvement big boxes built too many stores. The economy must now contract to its rightful size.

In a recession, many things happen. As the supply of money contracts, consumers consume less. This leaves excess inventory on the shelves. In order for the market to clear out the excess inventory, prices drop and companies cut back on production. This drop in prices is called deflation. With deflation and contraction, less production is needed resulting in a loss of jobs. In a healthy recession, wages would also drop with deflation. This shouldn't be a big deal. As prices go down, people need less money. As wages drop, industry can afford to hire more people and unemployment will subside. Everything should balance out, but this is where the problem causing debt comes in to play.

Debt and deflation don’t mix. If your wages are reduced, you will still have the same sized house payment, credit card payment, and car payment. In fact, if your interest rates aren’t locked in, you may end up paying more. The average American has approximately $8,000 in credit card debt, $14,000 in auto and education debt, $10,000 in home equity debt, and $84,000 in mortgage debt. Because Americans have so much debt, the natural tendency to resist wage rate reduction is greatly strengthened. Unions opposed wage reductions, individuals resist wage reductions, and since debt is so pervasive in our culture, managers (who have debt of their own) will resist it as well. The government is in no better position than its citizens. Lower wage rates mean lower tax income, and due to the massive amount of government debt, it too will resist wage reduction. "More consumption is the answer," they say.

Because of our consumer culture, we have become a nation of indebted people. The economy grew at an unsustainable rate for too long. Now that the economy is contracting, credit is scarce, and people are losing their jobs. And due to our debt, the best remedy for fixing the economy - letting wages fall to create jobs - is really going to hurt. That is, IF the government lets it happen. If they don't, the only option is to try and create another bubble, or raise inflation to the point where our currency becomes worthless. Neither option is very attractive. Still, maybe it's time we take our medicine (no matter how bitter it is), learn a stern lesson, and move on. Let's let the market do its job and resist government intervention instead. The more the government resists market corrections, the more unemployment we will have, and the longer that unemployment will last.

1.5 * (Debt - Payments) = Length of Recession

2009-01-22T09:10:00.000-08:00

It would be interesting to find out how much average debt people have, and how long it would take them to pay it off now that they are trying. Multiply that by 1.5 (the time to save some money in order to make future purchases), and that's how long our recession will be at a minimum (my opinion only).

Ok, so I looked it up. The average American (in 2004) owed about $8,000 in credit card debt. If the average person made a minimum payment of $150 per month at 13% interest and stopped incurring new debt it would take 6.67 years to pay off. Multiply by 1.5 and we can reasonably assume our recession will last 10 years minimum. Ok, that may not be a reasonable assumption as it is in no way scientific.

Consumer Spending

2009-01-16T07:06:00.000-08:00

Everyone seems to agree that consumer spending is the quickest way to economic recovery, but consumers are holding back.

"You're not going to get a recovery without a faster pace of consumer spending," said Alan Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price Associates.

During some previous recessions, shoppers resumed buying such big-ticket items as appliances, cars and houses despite flat salaries. The difference was that credit was much more available to consumers than it is now.

-Shoppers 'Sidelined' In Long Retail Slump

Everyone needs to rethink their views on economic recovery.

The current lack of credit isn't the problem. Consumers going into more debt won't help. Savings and a lack of credit are necessary adjustments that should have happened long ago. It was the abundance of credit that caused this problem in the first place. Car manufacturers opened to many factories and produced to many cars. Retailers opened to many stores and hired to many people. It was all based on credit - so much credit that it was impossible to sustain. Now these businesses need to deflate to the size they should have been and learn how to survive with fewer customers. Consumers need to pay off their credit cards and start saving for the future. The economic recovery will be slow and painful, but it needs to happen. Let's give the market a chance to fix things instead of having the government try to reinflate this or that bubble, or create a new bubble to take it's place.

More Banking Trouble

2009-01-14T07:48:00.001-08:00

Here is an article about banks needing more money from the government. The scale of this problem is simply amazing. The good think is that not every bank was reckless in their loan practices. For those that were, how could they not have realized that billions upon billions of dollars in loans were never going to be paid back?

The recession is making things worse...

"Industry analysts estimate rising unemployment and business failures will lead to another $500 billion to $750 billion of losses in coming months. That could bring total losses from the credit crisis to $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion, twice as high as earlier estimates."

What is even more amazing is that people think the recession will be over in 2009 or 2010. There is a major shift in our economy happening right now. Millions upon millions of jobs are being shed as companies prepare for lower rates of consumption. I doubt our buying habits will ever be the same. I've noticed it in advertising already, at least on a local level. Commercials are emphasizing the value and quality of their products over bells and whistles. I see a move back to quality products that last a long time, instead of cheap products that you buy once a year. Entrepreneurs will need to figure out how to make this happen, and hopefully employ people to produce and sell these products. But I see this as a 10 year adjustment at a minimum, much longer if businesses continue to ship manufacturing overseas.

Banks in Need of Even More Bailout Money

New Capitalism?

2009-01-08T11:30:00.000-08:00

I was looking at Yahoo today and an article caught my eye, "Sarkozy, Merkel, Blair call for new capitalism." I thought, "New capitalism? What are those crazy European's talking about now?"

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, leading the two-day conference with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, blamed financial speculators for encouraging a system fueled on debt. He called financial capitalism based on speculation "an immoral system" that has "perverted the logic of capitalism."

"It's a system where wealth goes to the wealthy, where work is devalued, where production is devalued, where entrepreneurial spirit is devalued," he said.

It actually makes a lot of sense. Speculation was a major factor in the Great Depression. It's what caused the dot.com bubble, and also what caused the housing bubble. And what makes speculation possible? Playing lose and free with the money system. There is room for governments to expand the money supply in times of economic recession, but they need to contract the money supply when things are going good. Same with debt.

For The First Time In 50 Years, People Increase Savings

2009-01-08T11:16:00.000-08:00

I found an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled, "Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving." In the article, it says "U.S. household debt, which has been growing steadily since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952, declined for the first time in the third quarter of 2008."

Technically, I see this as an extremely good thing. The more people save, the more capital there is available for banks and entrepreneurs to use to create businesses and produce goods. Unfortunately, there are some short term side effects. I left out part of the title, "Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation's Economic Woes". The article goes on to say, "In the same quarter, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years."

It will hurt the economy in the short run. People who are saving don't spend money. When they don't spend money, businesses close. As businesses close, more people are out of work. More people without pay checks means less spending. However, saving money is good thing in the long run. The long run is something American's have lost sight of in the last 30 years but need to catch sight of again. I say, as painful as it becomes, keep on saving.

That said, one problem that I see with savings right now, if/when inflation hits, all that savings will go down the drain as the dollar will be worth far less. If you saved $1000 to buy a new camera, that same camera might cost $10,000 5 years from now. My advice, if you're going to save money, use it to buy gold. There is a limited supply of it, and it will keep it's value much better then paper (the supply of which seems to be unlimited).

The Real Problem - Overgrowth

2009-01-07T07:08:00.003-08:00

Herman Daly: The Disconnection Between Financial Assets and Real Asssets

This is an interesting article by a former World Bank economist. It goes along with a few (but growing number of) people are saying - in the last 30 years, the economy grew far to big due to lax Federal Reserve rules, financial shenanigans, and government spending. Now, it needs to contract. Mr. Daly articulates it very well.

Here is a brief excerpt:

Can the economy grow fast enough in real terms to redeem the massive increase in debt? In a word, no. [...] The population of “negative pigs” (debt) can grow without limit since it is merely a number; the population of “positive pigs” (real wealth) faces severe physical constraints. The dawning realization that Soddy’s common sense was right, even though no one publicly admits it, is what underlies the crisis. The problem is not too little liquidity, but too many negative pigs growing too fast relative to the limited number of positive pigs whose growth is constrained by their digestive tracts, their gestation period, and places to put pigpens.

Budget Deficit Recognition

2009-01-07T05:52:00.001-08:00

Stimulus aside, Obama vows future budget restraint

Aside from the trillion dollars the government is about to spend to get our economy going again, Obama vows to watch what we spend. Doesn't really make to much sense, but it is something. The government is so wasteful.

Obama will appoint a "chief performance officer, a White House official who will work with federal agencies to set performance standards and hold agency managers accountable for progress." I'm curious to know what progress is, and what accountability is. If progress is doing more with less, I'm all for it. If accountability is firing anyone who's department wastes money or has a hint of corruption, then I'm all for it. Otherwise, it's just another person on the payroll.

Finally, if you put any stock in statistics and graphs (I know they can be manipulated, etc), the only president who's administration actually showed a leveling off of the federal deficit was Clinton when the democrats controlled both the house and senate. Republican presidents ever since Reagen, have spent uncontrollably while claiming fiscal responsibility. Let's hope Obama means what he says (with the exception of this next trillion dollars of course).

Oil Prices

2009-01-06T06:49:00.000-08:00

With the trouble in the Middle East and Russia shutting off natural gas to Ukraine, the price of oil has jumped to over $50 per barrel. As the government tries to spend its way out of this recession (thus devaluing the dollar), watch people quickly move to oil and other commodes such as gold, in an attempt to maintain their wealth. My guess is the price of oil will continue to rise this winter and into the summer.

Oil up to over $50 on Russia gas, Mideast

The Problem

2008-12-30T05:50:00.000-08:00

The following is from my personal blog, www.kohtz.org. I'm moving my thoughts on the economy to here so everything isn't so depressing on my personal site. :)

This is from December 1st, 2008 when I sort of figured out what is going on, and what is going to happen.

For a while now, I've had this feeling that the economy is in trouble. I started by sharing my thoughts on the economic stimulus package and then the bank bailouts. But I didn't fully understand why things were bad until recently. Here is a brief synopsis of why I think things are going to be bad for the next 10 plus years.

Over the past 200 years, we went from an agrarian economy, to an industrial economy, to what people now call a "service based" economy. When we made the move from agriculture to industrial, we went from a lot of jobs producing food, to a lot more jobs producing goods. But we were always producing. Today, in our "service based" economy, we have moved away from producing to consuming. People (wall street, the government and thus the media) say the fact that we consume so much is a sign of a strong economy. This simply is not true.

We have a lot of money, but not much wealth. Think of wealth as savings and the ability to produce things to sell. It's a lot of work to create wealth, but oh so easy to create money. To have lots of money, all you need to do is open a credit card or borrow against the equity in your house. Unfortunately, home equity is now gone, and credit cards are next.

Here is a very short list of very serious warning signs that our economy is in for it, two of which were in the news today:

People Don't Save
Saving is the true measure of wealth, far different from how much money people spend. People point to all the things we consume as an indication our economy is doing well. Where does that money come from? We borrow it.

Just look at this graph. People in the U.S. literally do not save money anymore. Savings rates are less then zero percent. We are broke.

Housing Bubble
The housing bubble burst earlier this year. It is another major sign of economic problems. This is how people could spend money and keep the "service economy" going. Need money? Just borrowing against the "equity" in your home.

This is also how many people (including Wall Street and the government) could justify the lack of savings. Home prices will keep going up, so we can count that as savings.

Oh, and it also caused the collapse of the global financial world. ~~Good thing the governments of the world can print money.~~ I take that back, it's not even funny to joke about. Printing money to save banks is only making things worse. MUCH worse. The sooner we let things fall apart, the sooner (and easier in the long run) we'll be able to rebuild our economy.

Credit Card Bubble
The Credit Card industry is next. Now that the housing bubble burst, which sent the financial world into a downward spiral, nobody will be able to pay off their credit cards. Credit card companies will have to stop issuing new lines of credit. This article just came out today.

Credit card industry may cut $2 trillion of lines: analyst
"The U.S. credit card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said."

The Credit Card companies will be next to ask for government money to cover their losses. They are as essential to the "service based economy" as banks, if not more so. With no equity left in houses and no more credit available to consumers from credit cards, how will we keep the spending going?

We Don't Manufacture Anything
The other article from today, Manufacturing Index is at a 26 year low. Like I said above, wealth is measured by savings and by our ability to produce goods. We don't have either anymore. What will we do when people can't borrow money? How will people pay the money they owe back without being able to produce things to sell?

To me, this feels like the impending doom of global warming. People early on talked about it but nobody listened. Then signs started to show up, but still nobody really listened. Until it has a direct impact on our lives, it won't really exist. The difference between this and global warming is that this happened a lot quicker, a lot fewer people saw it, and the direct effects are here right now. It's becoming very real.

I'm not sure what to do about all this yet, so don't ask me for advice. But I am researching it. Maybe I'll let you know what I find. Oh, and if you don't agree with me, please email me and tell me why. I'd love to be convinced I'm wrong.