Why Debt Will Cause Lasting Unemployment

You may not have heard yet, but the United States is in a recession. All recessions are caused by the same thing – artificial growth of the economy followed by a natural contraction. The current recession we are in was caused by government spending, artificially low interest rates, speculation in real estate causing artificially high valuations, debt based on those valuations, and cheap and easy credit. For thirty years, we have spent well beyond our means. Because of this, car companies built too many factories and home improvement big boxes built too many stores. The economy must now contract to its rightful size.

In a recession, many things happen. As the supply of money contracts, consumers consume less. This leaves excess inventory on the shelves. In order for the market to clear out the excess inventory, prices drop and companies cut back on production. This drop in prices is called deflation. With deflation and contraction, less production is needed resulting in a loss of jobs. In a healthy recession, wages would also drop with deflation. This shouldn't be a big deal. As prices go down, people need less money. As wages drop, industry can afford to hire more people and unemployment will subside. Everything should balance out, but this is where the problem causing debt comes in to play.

Debt and deflation don’t mix. If your wages are reduced, you will still have the same sized house payment, credit card payment, and car payment. In fact, if your interest rates aren’t locked in, you may end up paying more. The average American has approximately $8,000 in credit card debt, $14,000 in auto and education debt, $10,000 in home equity debt, and $84,000 in mortgage debt. Because Americans have so much debt, the natural tendency to resist wage rate reduction is greatly strengthened. Unions opposed wage reductions, individuals resist wage reductions, and since debt is so pervasive in our culture, managers (who have debt of their own) will resist it as well. The government is in no better position than its citizens. Lower wage rates mean lower tax income, and due to the massive amount of government debt, it too will resist wage reduction. "More consumption is the answer," they say.

Because of our consumer culture, we have become a nation of indebted people. The economy grew at an unsustainable rate for too long. Now that the economy is contracting, credit is scarce, and people are losing their jobs. And due to our debt, the best remedy for fixing the economy - letting wages fall to create jobs - is really going to hurt. That is, IF the government lets it happen. If they don't, the only option is to try and create another bubble, or raise inflation to the point where our currency becomes worthless. Neither option is very attractive. Still, maybe it's time we take our medicine (no matter how bitter it is), learn a stern lesson, and move on. Let's let the market do its job and resist government intervention instead. The more the government resists market corrections, the more unemployment we will have, and the longer that unemployment will last.

1.5 * (Debt - Payments) = Length of Recession

It would be interesting to find out how much average debt people have, and how long it would take them to pay it off now that they are trying. Multiply that by 1.5 (the time to save some money in order to make future purchases), and that's how long our recession will be at a minimum (my opinion only).

Ok, so I looked it up. The average American (in 2004) owed about $8,000 in credit card debt. If the average person made a minimum payment of $150 per month at 13% interest and stopped incurring new debt it would take 6.67 years to pay off. Multiply by 1.5 and we can reasonably assume our recession will last 10 years minimum. Ok, that may not be a reasonable assumption as it is in no way scientific.

Consumer Spending

Everyone seems to agree that consumer spending is the quickest way to economic recovery, but consumers are holding back.

"You're not going to get a recovery without a faster pace of consumer spending," said Alan Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price Associates.

During some previous recessions, shoppers resumed buying such big-ticket items as appliances, cars and houses despite flat salaries. The difference was that credit was much more available to consumers than it is now.

-Shoppers 'Sidelined' In Long Retail Slump

Everyone needs to rethink their views on economic recovery.

The current lack of credit isn't the problem. Consumers going into more debt won't help. Savings and a lack of credit are necessary adjustments that should have happened long ago. It was the abundance of credit that caused this problem in the first place. Car manufacturers opened to many factories and produced to many cars. Retailers opened to many stores and hired to many people. It was all based on credit - so much credit that it was impossible to sustain. Now these businesses need to deflate to the size they should have been and learn how to survive with fewer customers. Consumers need to pay off their credit cards and start saving for the future. The economic recovery will be slow and painful, but it needs to happen. Let's give the market a chance to fix things instead of having the government try to reinflate this or that bubble, or create a new bubble to take it's place.

More Banking Trouble

Here is an article about banks needing more money from the government. The scale of this problem is simply amazing. The good think is that not every bank was reckless in their loan practices. For those that were, how could they not have realized that billions upon billions of dollars in loans were never going to be paid back?

The recession is making things worse...

"Industry analysts estimate rising unemployment and business failures will lead to another $500 billion to $750 billion of losses in coming months. That could bring total losses from the credit crisis to $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion, twice as high as earlier estimates."

What is even more amazing is that people think the recession will be over in 2009 or 2010. There is a major shift in our economy happening right now. Millions upon millions of jobs are being shed as companies prepare for lower rates of consumption. I doubt our buying habits will ever be the same. I've noticed it in advertising already, at least on a local level. Commercials are emphasizing the value and quality of their products over bells and whistles. I see a move back to quality products that last a long time, instead of cheap products that you buy once a year. Entrepreneurs will need to figure out how to make this happen, and hopefully employ people to produce and sell these products. But I see this as a 10 year adjustment at a minimum, much longer if businesses continue to ship manufacturing overseas.

Banks in Need of Even More Bailout Money

New Capitalism?

I was looking at Yahoo today and an article caught my eye, "Sarkozy, Merkel, Blair call for new capitalism." I thought, "New capitalism? What are those crazy European's talking about now?"

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, leading the two-day conference with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, blamed financial speculators for encouraging a system fueled on debt. He called financial capitalism based on speculation "an immoral system" that has "perverted the logic of capitalism."

"It's a system where wealth goes to the wealthy, where work is devalued, where production is devalued, where entrepreneurial spirit is devalued," he said.

It actually makes a lot of sense. Speculation was a major factor in the Great Depression. It's what caused the dot.com bubble, and also what caused the housing bubble. And what makes speculation possible? Playing lose and free with the money system. There is room for governments to expand the money supply in times of economic recession, but they need to contract the money supply when things are going good. Same with debt.

For The First Time In 50 Years, People Increase Savings

I found an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled, "Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving." In the article, it says "U.S. household debt, which has been growing steadily since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952, declined for the first time in the third quarter of 2008."

Technically, I see this as an extremely good thing. The more people save, the more capital there is available for banks and entrepreneurs to use to create businesses and produce goods. Unfortunately, there are some short term side effects. I left out part of the title, "Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation's Economic Woes". The article goes on to say, "In the same quarter, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years."

It will hurt the economy in the short run. People who are saving don't spend money. When they don't spend money, businesses close. As businesses close, more people are out of work. More people without pay checks means less spending. However, saving money is good thing in the long run. The long run is something American's have lost sight of in the last 30 years but need to catch sight of again. I say, as painful as it becomes, keep on saving.

That said, one problem that I see with savings right now, if/when inflation hits, all that savings will go down the drain as the dollar will be worth far less. If you saved $1000 to buy a new camera, that same camera might cost $10,000 5 years from now. My advice, if you're going to save money, use it to buy gold. There is a limited supply of it, and it will keep it's value much better then paper (the supply of which seems to be unlimited).

The Real Problem - Overgrowth

Herman Daly: The Disconnection Between Financial Assets and Real Asssets

This is an interesting article by a former World Bank economist. It goes along with a few (but growing number of) people are saying - in the last 30 years, the economy grew far to big due to lax Federal Reserve rules, financial shenanigans, and government spending. Now, it needs to contract. Mr. Daly articulates it very well.

Here is a brief excerpt:

Can the economy grow fast enough in real terms to redeem the massive increase in debt? In a word, no. [...] The population of “negative pigs” (debt) can grow without limit since it is merely a number; the population of “positive pigs” (real wealth) faces severe physical constraints. The dawning realization that Soddy’s common sense was right, even though no one publicly admits it, is what underlies the crisis. The problem is not too little liquidity, but too many negative pigs growing too fast relative to the limited number of positive pigs whose growth is constrained by their digestive tracts, their gestation period, and places to put pigpens.

Budget Deficit Recognition

Stimulus aside, Obama vows future budget restraint

Aside from the trillion dollars the government is about to spend to get our economy going again, Obama vows to watch what we spend. Doesn't really make to much sense, but it is something. The government is so wasteful.

Obama will appoint a "chief performance officer, a White House official who will work with federal agencies to set performance standards and hold agency managers accountable for progress." I'm curious to know what progress is, and what accountability is. If progress is doing more with less, I'm all for it. If accountability is firing anyone who's department wastes money or has a hint of corruption, then I'm all for it. Otherwise, it's just another person on the payroll.

Finally, if you put any stock in statistics and graphs (I know they can be manipulated, etc), the only president who's administration actually showed a leveling off of the federal deficit was Clinton when the democrats controlled both the house and senate. Republican presidents ever since Reagen, have spent uncontrollably while claiming fiscal responsibility. Let's hope Obama means what he says (with the exception of this next trillion dollars of course).

Oil Prices

With the trouble in the Middle East and Russia shutting off natural gas to Ukraine, the price of oil has jumped to over $50 per barrel. As the government tries to spend its way out of this recession (thus devaluing the dollar), watch people quickly move to oil and other commodes such as gold, in an attempt to maintain their wealth. My guess is the price of oil will continue to rise this winter and into the summer.

Oil up to over $50 on Russia gas, Mideast